Egypt in an Uproar

Either, Or and More: a conversation between friends that takes a deeper look at our world historically, philosophically, and geo-politically, that attempts to get beyond the sound bites that tend to clog our modern brains. Introducing: Desert Bum and Garden Keeper.

Desert Bum: You been keeping up with the news on Egypt this week?

Garden Keeper: Quite the sudden turn of events. Seems like something’s astir throughout the Arab world.

Desert Bum: For sixty years, governments in the Arab world have seemed like a geopolitical constant, as stable as the law of gravity. However, in just a matter of weeks and days, Tunisia has overthrown its government and Egyptians have rallied by the thousands to protest and demand the overthrow of President Mubarak, who’s been in power for thirty years. Also, Yemen, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia are facing disturbances of various kinds and causes.

Garden Keeper: I heard someone blaming Obama for inflaming the turmoil by not being more supportive of Mubarak.

Desert Bum: Obama is walking a fine line between supporting a regime that is an old friend of the USA and gaining new friends that could possibly take over. But Obama and the USA have had very little to do with things getting to the point they are right now.

Garden Keeper: In Tunisia, Egypt, and these other places, the conflict has been over basics like jobs and food, right?

Desert Bum: And government leaders that were once responsive to their people, but whom now look old and out of touch. Political and Foreign policy stagnation opposite Israel have also contributed to the discontent. Nasser had the option of using hatred of Israel to unify Egypt in a way Mubarak has never been allowed to.

Garden Keeper: The big question on everyone’s mind is how all this will pan out, especially the protests in Egypt, whether these protests will lead to a new government that is pro- or anti- American policies in the Middle East.

Desert Bum: As far as Egypt is concerned, the most obvious geopolitical strategic issues are the Suez Canal, the Gaza Strip and Israeli Security. However, other problems exist, including Egypt’s position as a stabilizing force in the Arab world and its ability to put pressure on more extremist or oppressive governments, including Sudan with its current independence.

Garden Keeper: I think many Americans are worried by the prospect of an Islamist regime arising in Egypt, similar to Iran, positioned ideologically and politically against the US and Israel.

Desert Bum: However, not only does Egypt have a history of secular politics dominated by the fiercely secular military, the Brotherhood in Egypt is not as likely to create a Sunni version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sunnis tend to be more unstable than Shiites as far as radicals go.

Garden Keeper: I assume you mean, then, less able to run a country. Let’s see, Iranians are Shiites and Arabs are Sunnis, right?

Desert Bum: Not quite so simple. The Islamic world is much more diverse than we Americans presume. There are significant populations of Shiites in the Gulf, Yemen and Iraq as well, though Egypt’s Shiite population is a much smaller percentage of the nation’s total population. And lots of non-Arab Muslims, such as Pakistanis, are Sunnis as well.

Garden Keeper: Well, this is getting us off-track from the current tensions in Egypt. Basically Egyptians are Sunni Arabs, right?

Desert Bum: Generally speaking, though there are Christian Arabs as well as non-Arab Egyptians. Anyway, to get back to the issue of Sunni radicals, even Sunni theocracies, when they exist, are often prone to be secular in nature in their stable incarnations (for example, The Ottoman Caliphate). More worrisome is the possibility that Egypt partially collapses and is wracked by sectarian and political friction, allowing radicals on the fringe to act unimpeded, especially against Israel or international trade in the Canal area.

Garden Keeper: So you are saying that even if Egypt doesn’t radicalize like Iran did, a fragmentation of the government could lead to fringe elements like the Brotherhood having great influence in the region. In fact, isn’t that what happened in Iran? The revolution against the Shah started off as largely secular and moderate Islam movement, but then in the turmoil that followed the collapse of the government, the radicals seized power and called it their own revolution. Which, by the way, is what happened in the Russian revolution a century ago, too, between the Provisional Government and the Bolsheviks.

Desert Bum: The big players are unlikely to allow such a situation to come about, or at least they will interfere to try to avoid it. Europe and Turkey are too dependent on trade through the Red Sea to stand by. While the United States is not as concerned economically with the Canal, they will see it as playing an indispensable role in ensuring American military influence in the region. All these players will move with extreme care in approaching such a situation. Israel will probably not be as gentle. It is famous for overreacting to perceived threats, and the possibility of a huge terrorist breeding ground next door will thoroughly spook Israeli leaders. Israeli responses are likely to include preemptive military strikes, occupation of Sinai, and Mossad assassinations of terrorists, all almost certain to further destabilize Egypt.

Garden Keeper: Thus exacerbating the problem. Cheery thoughts. But there may be no way to hold back the tide or even guide it at this point. We always fear uncertainty of the unknown more than the certain bad of the known. Yet there is nothing outsiders can do to make up for the corrupt, ineffective leadership that has been in place for at least a generation, and which is now leading to this unrest.

Desert Bum: However, it must be remembered that unlike other nations that have fallen into such chaos – Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan – Egypt doesn't suffer from the same existing regional, ethnic or religious fault zones. Egypt is much more monolithic and stable, more comparable to Tunisia or the Gulf States.

Garden Keeper: There are the Copts (Coptic Christians) to consider.

Desert Bum: But they have shown an incredible ability to survive through Egypt's previous rough periods. And yet, this has been said of unobtrusive religious minorities in other countries such as the Assyrians in Iraq as well. In any case, Egypt is more likely to fall into prolonged economic rather than political crisis. This is also an important point for the Egyptians to realize: revolution may bring political freedoms but it may not bring economic growth.

Garden Keeper: Tell that to the protesters now! Moreover how can you hold back a nation? Egypt has been frozen in time since Sadat died in 1981.

Desert Bum: This is particularly relevant as much of the cause for the popular uprising is the great level of unemployment among Egypt's youth. While they seek freedom, they also seek employment and career opportunities, something they may not find regardless of the outcome of the unrest. Again, this conforms to Egypt’s position in the Arab world. While some would describe rulers such as Mubarak, Ben Ali, and Qaddafi as dictators, they might more properly be called autocrats, firm, authoritarian, oppressive, but not as dramatically violent or quick to use secret police to “disappear” dissidents. This seems to be norm for the 20th century Arab world regimes, with Saddam being more of an outlier.

Garden Keeper: I guess we’ll just have to watch it unfold and trust that world leaders have the wisdom to know when and how to act. I read on Facebook that someone was saying world leader interventions in Egypt will speed up the return of Christ.

Desert Bum: Is that thought of as good or bad, speeding up the return of Christ, I mean?

Garden Keeper: I just wonder how anyone, including world leaders, can have an impact on a timetable supposedly God alone controls. Such theological consequences are uncertain and should not serve as guides in geopolitical affairs. Besides, I think our concerns should be as much about the needs of the people involved no matter how this all plays out. Like the guy who couldn’t get work in Tunisia and so set himself on fire. A man that desperate? His needs – be they economic, political or spiritual – have value as do broader geo-political concerns.

Desert Bum: Amen to that!